Integration of phlebotomine ecological niche modelling, and mapping of cutaneous leishmaniasis surveillance data, to identify areas at risk of under-estimation.

INTRODUCTION: Passive surveillance systems are thought to under-estimate the true incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) by two- to five-fold. Ecological niche models based on remotely sensed data can identify environmental factors which favor phlebotomine vectors. Here we report an integrated approach to identifying areas at risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis by applying spatial analysis methods to niche model results, and local surveillance data, in two locations in Colombia with differing vector ecology. The objective was to identify townships in which later phases of the project could implement community-based surveillance to obtain direct estimates of under-reporting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was carried out in one municipality in each of two departments of the Andean region of Colombia: Pueblo Rico in Risaralda, and Rovira in Tolima. Niche mapping by maximum entropy, based on published and unpublished existing locations of Pintomyia (Pifanomyia) longiflocosa and Psychodopygus panamensis, and using variables on land cover, climate and elevation. Field catches were done in each municipality to test predictions of high relative probability of presence. The niche model results were included as a predictor in a conditional autoregressive spatial model, in which the outcome variable was the number of cases by township, as detected by passive surveillance. RESULTS: Having rarefied 173 geolocated records, 46 of Pi. longiflocosa and 57 of Ps. panamensis were used for the niche modelling. At the national level, both species had high relative probability of presence on parts of the slopes of the three Andean cordilleras. Pi. longiflocosa also has a high relative probability of presence in the higher parts of the Magdalena valley, as does Ps. panamensis in some areas close to the Caribbean coast. At the local level, field catches confirmed that Pi. longiflocosa was the most abundant species in Rovira, and likewise Ps. panamensis in Pueblo Rico. The spatial regression showed that the incidence of ACL, according to surveillance, was positively, but not statistically significantly, associated with the relative probability of presence from the risk model. CONCLUSIONS: These niche maps bring together published and unpublished results on phlebotomine species which are important vectors in Colombia. Maps of the fitted values of incidence were used to guide the selection of townships in which further phases of the study will attempt to quantify the extent of under-estimation of ACL incidence.

Land use in relation to composition and abundance of phlebotomines (Diptera: Psychodidae) in five foci of domiciliary transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia.

American cutaneous leishmaniasis is a public health concern in Colombia, its incidence being sustained or focally increased principally by the emergence of domestic transmission concomitantly with the adaptation of the phlebotomine vectors to habitat transformation around households. The objective of the study is to scale up a rapid characterization methodology for evaluating the relationship of land use around the house to the composition and abundance of phlebotomines. Five sites with a history of domestic leishmaniasis transmission in the Andean area of Colombia were selected. The peri-domestic habitat was evaluated at 10 m intervals along eight radial transects, centered on each house, at 45° intervals using a web pattern. Phlebotomines were captured by placing three CDC light traps over two nights both indoors and outdoors (10 m from the house). Blood source and infection were determined by PCR. Spearman rank correlation coefficients and negative binomial regression were used to quantify associations between the phlebotomine abundance and habitat categories. The study demonstrated that the vectors were largely anthropophagic (62% of 79 were human blood) and that a single species in each site was favored by the pertaining agriculture monoculture. Specifically, Pintomyia (Pifanomyia) quasitownsendi was associated with sugar cane in Novillero and La Esmeralda; while Pi. (Pif.) longiflocosa was associated with coffee plantations in Agua Bonita and El Cucal. Honda Alta had a more diverse array of land use and forest coverage with a lower number of specimens but higher species diversity. In terms of distance from the house to an area of a given land use, the abundance of Pi. (Pif.) quasitownsendi was inversely related to the distance to sugar cane plantation (Spearman correlation coefficient, ρ = -0.56, p < 0.001 for outdoor catches, and ρ = -0.50, p < 0.001 indoors). A similar inverse relationship was observed for Pi. (Pif.) longiflocosa with regard to technified coffee (ρ = -0.51, p < 0.001 outdoors, and ρ = -0.48, p < 0.001 indoors). This rapid characterization methodology could guide public heath decision makers in identifying those houses at higher risk of domestic transmission, and also educate farmers to increase the distance between their crops and any neighboring houses.